At any rate, by March he was embracing a more proactive response to the coronavirus.Īs I recall, he went so far as to get Covid-19 symptoms. Returning to February, can you remind me how Cummings was superforecasting the Covid-19 response back then? According to a Sunday Times investigation, he revealed the government’s strategy at a private engagement, which those present paraphrased as “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”. How did such a controversial thinker get into Downing Street in the first place? He answered a call from Cummings for “misfits and weirdos” to apply for jobs at Number 10.Ĭould some one with finely honed prognostic skills not have predicted all this? I knew you were going to say that. In response to what? To questions about the appointment of Andrew Sabisky, a government adviser and self-proclaimed superforecaster who, it transpired, had previously espoused eugenicist views. “Read Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasters, instead of political pundits who don’t know what they’re talking about,” he told reporters in February. This is not the first time he has recommended the book. I did, but only because I’m not a government advis er. How did I miss this assignment? You must have skipped the weekly meeting Cummings held with government advisers. Supplementary reading includes High Output Management by Andrew Grove, a business classic from the author of Only the Paranoid Survive. Questions? When? At an away day next month. And read it carefully as there will be questions. So, how can I? Read the book and find out. What’s it about? It’s about how most experts are rubbish at making predictions, but some people are very good at it, and how you can learn to be more like the latter. The full title is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. It’s a book, is it? Yes, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Appearance: Hardback, paperback, Kindle or audiobook – your choice.
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